{"id":19302,"date":"2022-10-14T06:52:02","date_gmt":"2022-10-14T04:52:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.carnisostenibili.it\/?p=19302"},"modified":"2022-10-13T18:52:43","modified_gmt":"2022-10-13T16:52:43","slug":"plant-based-meat-substitutes-are-the-biggest-failure-in-the-food-industrys-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.carnisostenibili.it\/en\/plant-based-meat-substitutes-are-the-biggest-failure-in-the-food-industrys-history\/","title":{"rendered":"Plant-based meat substitutes are the biggest failure in the food industry’s history"},"content":{"rendered":"

Plant-based meat substitutes had a lot of space in the media (and on supermarket shelves) these last few years, but consumers do not like them. <\/em><\/p>\n

According to the New Nutrition Business report, “Failures \u2013 and what you can learn from them<\/em>“, published by food industry expert Julian Mellentin<\/strong><\/a>, despite the echo chamber<\/strong> created by media and the huge investments<\/strong>, these hyper-processed products represent probably the biggest failure in food industry history. We have spoken about the strategic mistakes<\/strong> made by the food industry in following this hype with Mr Mellentin himself.<\/p>\n

Why has there been such a buzz around plant-based products for some years? <\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n

The plant-based<\/strong> meat substitutes business benefited from the biggest PR <\/strong>campaign in food industry history, backed by money from not-for-profits, which made PR and even directly paid newspapers<\/strong> to write pro-substitutes and attacking animal agriculture articles. The best-known example is the Guardian<\/a> in the UK.<\/p>\n

Many food industry executives have been misled by the media<\/strong>, consultants and deep-pocketed investors into thinking that plant-based<\/strong> meat substitutes were on a path of inevitable linear sales growth<\/strong> that would see them ‘disrupt’ the meat business. But they are now learning that it is set to remain, for a long time to come, niche business<\/strong> with limited consumer appeal.\u00a0But the massive PR campaign<\/strong> from the investors helped create a media echo chamber<\/strong>, which successfully built a narrative of “the plant-based meat revolution” and “the protein transition”.<\/p>\n

Consumers<\/strong> \u2013 the kings and queens of the food and beverage industry \u2013 have now helped us by exposing how the Emperors of investment have no clothes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Among the many evidence-free claims<\/strong> made for the future of plant-based meats<\/strong> and which have misled so many executives, here is one good example:\u00a0Rethink X<\/strong>, a ‘disruptive technology’<\/strong> Silicon Valley think tank with links to investors, wrote back in 2019 that: “Modern foods have already started disrupting the ground meat market, but once cost parity is reached, we believe in 2021-23, adoption will tip and accelerate exponentially.”<\/p>\n

Why are plant-based meat substitutes not having the expected success among consumers? <\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n

Because most meat substitute makers have failed to understand them. And because of these points:<\/p>\n

Failure to meet consumer expectations of taste and texture<\/strong>. Canadian plant meat maker Maple Leaf Foods told stock analysts in 2022 that consumer trial rates “were super high, penetrating 60% of US households. However, consumers’ unmet needs did not repeat purchases. As a result, the category did not reach expected levels of habituation<\/strong>, had very high lapse rates and very low buy rates<\/strong>.” For good technical reasons, plant-based cannot match the taste and texture of beef or lamb. Not now, not any time in the next decade. This was always known, but the investors chose to ignore<\/strong> technological reality<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Flexitarianism is losing momentum<\/strong>. New Nutrition Business’s<\/em>\u00a0most recent 5-country consumer survey found that 24% of people say they are trying to consume less meat. The figure was 23% back in 2020. Growth in the numbers of meat reducers<\/strong> was dramatic from about 2014-2020 but has now slowed dramatically<\/strong>. This makes sense because consumers’ beliefs about food & health are fragmented, and assuming ever-upward growth<\/strong> is dangerous.<\/p>\n

Food culture<\/strong>. Culture is more powerful than technology or strategy<\/strong>, and in most countries, the ultra-processed burger contradicts food culture, particularly in southern Europe and the UK. Meat substitutes<\/strong> are a graveyard of technical and commercial ambition, a good way to burn millions of dollars<\/strong> for nothing.<\/p>\n

So, what has happened in the plant-based meat sector is almost the opposite of what many people forecast\u2026 <\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n

It’s even worse than we thought<\/strong> (we who believed the sector had low-growth, niche potential). The category is stalling, even falling<\/strong>. The US market, the world’s biggest, stalled at 1.4% market share in 2021 and fell by 0.5% in 2022, according to SPINS data.<\/p>\n

In a conference call in August 2022, Philip Hardin<\/strong>, the chief financial officer of Beyond Meat<\/strong>, said: “The second quarter of 2022 saw a contraction in US household penetration of plant-based meat for the first time in over four years.” Citing Nielsen data, he added that meat alternative sales<\/strong> worldwide deceleration was bigger than anticipated. In Europe, he said, the category went from a growth of 7% in 2021 to shrink by 14% in the first half of 2022.<\/p>\n

According to 210 Analytics<\/strong>, which uses IRI supermarket data, sales of plant-based meat in July 2022 increased by just $1 million while volume declined. Sales of conventional meat<\/strong>, by contrast, grew by $300 million<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Kellogg’s<\/strong> is getting out of the plant-based meat substitutes business<\/strong>, planning to move its market-leading (and profitable) Morningstar brand into a separate company. Its competitor, Beyond Meat<\/strong>, the company whose CEO once boasted of his intention to make people switch away from consuming meat, has reported calamitous financial results<\/strong>. Looking at the first six months of 2022, it’s clear that the picture has no positives:<\/p>\n